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Michael Tomasky on High-Information Democrats
Michael Tomasky at The Guardian, 1/27/2008:
They're not an official category of voters whose tally is measured in exit polls, like whites or blacks, women or men, old or young. And since they're not an official category, we may never really have the evidence.
But I have a feeling I know which group really handed Hillary Clinton - or maybe they were thinking even more of that other Clinton - her decisive loss to Barack Obama in South Carolina on Saturday night. Call them "high-information Democrats."
These are the people who follow all the ins and outs of the contest. They read The New York Times. They watch cable television, probably Keith Olbermann first and foremost. They read blogs. They know every twist and turn, every thrust and parry. And yes, they exist even in South Carolina.
As I said, they are not a measured category. But Obama was ahead by eight to 15 percentage points in most public opinion polls up to Friday. He won by more than that, 28 percentage points. Who accounted for this disparity? We'll need to see raw turnout numbers by region to have a better idea - according to one network exit poll Obama won a majority of college-educated voters, both white and black. I suspect that it's a plausible conclusion that high-information voters swung in Obama's direction in the contest's closing days and hours.
If I'm right, those voters were pretty clearly saying that they didn't like the kind of campaign the Clintons were running against a fellow Democrat. It's a rebuke for both Clintons that will force them to rethink their scorched-earth strategy toward Obama and that presents them with a conundrum.
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People’s Daily on Presidential Primaries through Nevada
The following major points, however, merit close observations with the ongoing US primaries:
First, Democrat candidates have imbued voters with an outburst of enthusiasm and interests, On the one hand, Americans hope that the Democratic Party will assume office to reform politics and re-orientate the direction, as they have become despaired with reality in the U.S. and aspire to make changes. On the other hand, one of the Democrat forerunners is a woman and the other a black man, and whoever gets elected will make the American history. Mrs. Clinton's race has greatly interested American women in politics, and the smart, handsome black Obama has filled Afro-Americans and young people with great enthusiasm.
The second point is a rivalry between the "reform" card and the "experience" card. Due to people's discontent with reality in Washington D.C., Obama first of all raised the "reform" card and attracted lots of students, youths and kids. Hillary hosted her "experience" card at first, and later shifted her card to the one of "reform" plus with "experienced preparations"so as to pluck up her initiative as her original card inclines to be linked to present reality in the U.S. by her opponents.
Third, Republican candidates vie with each other for unfolding their "security" card. They have reached consensus to beef up the U.S.' military might while vying with one another to release their tougher foreign policies. As the U.S. is currently faced with security challenges, they opt to pass themselves off as reliable guarantors of U.S. security once they get elected.
Fourth, Republican candidates meanwhile raise "anti-immigration" card. All Republican candidates, with the exception for John McCain, have advocated for expelling 12 million illegal immigrants from the U.S. Meanwhile, John McCain holds that they should also be "given a way out" and because of his once-declined supporting rate, he later had to emphasize on reinforcing border management and law enforcement. It is precisely owing to this cause that more minority races voters have turned to support Democrat candidates.
The fifth point represents a "religion" card. Mitt Romney, former Massachusetts governor, has striven to quell persistent concern about his Mormon religion. If elected, he pledged to voters, he will only serve public interest instead of working for any religious sect. And former Arkansas governor Mike Huchabee, an ordained Baptist minister, however, appeal to evangelical voters, or social conservatives. So far, he has picked up a key endorsement from a group of African American church leaders. But he gets reproached for collecting votes in the name of religion, and much remains to see what role his religion is to further play in his race for presidency.
Finally, the newest point has something to do with an "economy card". At start, Democrats unfolded the card of troop pullout from Iraq. But when it was reported that situation there had turned to the better recently, the value of this card has lowered. Meanwhile, faced with daily growing worries for the possible economic recession, candidates of both Parties vie with each other to hoist the "economy" card. General speaking, Democrats candidates are in favor of increasing government expenses and subsidizing the impoverished people, whereas Republican contenders opt to cut tax rate or offer tax refunds.
Looking ahead, South Carolina, the first state with a major black electorate, is due to hold the Democrats' next contest on January 26. Polls so far predict that Barack Obama will readily win with a margin of five to six percent over Hillary Clinton, as the black communities there makes up somewhat half the voters, and so the contest is all the more worth seeing and observing. Likewise, Republican hopefuls are looking forward to primaries on Super Tuesday on February 5 to sort out their frontrunners, and so much remains to be seen on that day.
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